DLD 3/31/09

Stuff to read through while you delay writing your dissertation…

Tigers release Gary Sheffield.

When Sheffield arrived at the Tigers’ clubhouse Tuesday, he knew something was up.

“People were looking at me funny,” he said.

Teammates or staff?

“Staff,” he said.

That’s because teammates didn’t know yet that Sheffield was about to be released.

When asked if he was stunned after it happened, Sheffield said, “I’m not stunned. But you don’t really know what to feel or what to call it.”

The Tigers will eat a delicious $14 MM.

Make sure you are well protected from the Conficker worm.

Security researchers are racing to head off an Internet worm that is scheduled to phone home for instructions Wednesday, possibly to cause widespread damage.

Researchers who have studied Conficker call it one of the most complex pieces of malicious code they’ve seen.
Known as Conficker or Downadup, the worm has been sitting dormant inside the 10 million to 12 million Windows PCs it has managed to infect all over the world since it emerged in November.

Obviously never spent time with the inner-workings of PECOTA.
World Series hero Cole Hamels will be out to start the season:

Hamels threw 65 pitches in a minor league spring training game Monday and allowed 10 hits and three runs in four innings. He walked one and struck out five.

“He was fine,” Dubee said. “I’m not looking at [how many] base hits he gave up or anything. His command is not there. That’s for sure.”

Dubee said he asked Hamels to throw more fastballs than he normally would and reported that his fastball was clocked at 85-88 miles per hour. In previous starts this spring, Hamels had raised concerns by topping out in the lower 80s.

So that’s Hamels, Lackey, Duchscherer…and, yet, my understanding is that Rich Harden is ready to go.  Speaking of pitchers, THT looks at Nick Adenhart of the dreaded Slegna:
  • No swinging third strikes
  • Fell behind often—1.6:1 ratio of 1-0 to 0-1 counts
  • Barely ventured over the inside half against left-handed hitters
  • Batters swung at only 35 percent of his curveballs when they were in the strike zone
  • Other than that, he fooled no one—the swing rate on his pitches out of the zone (15 percent) was half the league average
  • Even Adenhart’s change-up is below average in terms of missing bats (20 percent whiff rate, which is a good 10 points lower than league average for change-ups)

I wanna be…YOUR LINK DUMPER!  Why don’t you call my screen name?

169 Responses to DLD 3/31/09

  1. 74mk says:

    1. At what point does Carlos Gonzalez have to stop sucking, in order to sustain the faith so many (still) have in his potential?

    The following players have been optioned to Triple-A Colorado Springs: outfielder Carlos Gonzalez, outfielder Matt Murton and left-handed pitcher Greg Smith.

    (Aren’t you supposed to capitalize the first word after a colon? Have I been doing it wrong all these years?)

    2. Apparently Mike Piazza told everyone he did steroids, and in so doing ensured no one would say he did steroids. Or something. I don’t know. It’s very confusing.

  2. monkeyball says:

    {looks at sal funny}

  3. mikeA says:

    Slusser item:
    1. Devine seeing some doctor in Alabama.
    2. Cahill might start the second game of the year….

  4. monkeyball says:

    RATTO WATCH: Ray sez, Sheffield’s the kind of bargain Billy can’t resist.

    • Leopold Bloom says:

      They have begun a similar debate at a similar site, and a lot of people don’t want him from a personality standpoint. But if he fits into our team, I don’t see how adding his bat can hurt us, though T-Buck almost certainly disagrees with me. Am I way off here?

  5. devo77 says:

    Hello … where is my free kraut?

  6. mikeA says:

    Big multi-projection system post from replacement level yankees blog.

    Wouldn’t be much of a surprise to see any of the four teams win the division this year.

    • devo77 says:

      It’s hard to know what to really make of it, without knowing more about the assumptions he’s making, especially since it sounds like he is doing it in a fairly unscientific manner …

      • salb918 says:

        It’s playing time that really sinks projections like these, and playing time is so, so, SO difficult to project. I don’t trust ANY projection system to tell me playing time, just rate stats. Once we have the rate stats, we can make intelligent *guesses* about playing time based on depth, gut feeling, known role-changes, personnel issues, etc.

        • andeux says:

          Yeah, that’s the big missing piece.

          In this case, whether the A’s get anything at all out of Duke-shire this year (and I’m guessing they don’t) is pretty huge. And the same is true for the Angels with Lackey/Santana/Escobar.

          I take it you’ve seen Tango’s community playing time forecast project. I’m very curious as to how that turns out.

          • monkeyball says:

            I agree. Playtime is very important.

          • mikeA says:

            Current projections for the A’s look pretty reasonable, although it probably doesn’t add up correctly. And turning “games” into pas would be pretty tricky.

          • mikeA says:

            The A’s rotation is pretty bad, but it’s better than the Angels’ right now with a 3-4-5 of Moseley, Adenhart, and “Shane Loux.” Frenchmen can’t pitch.

            angels’s pt projections

            • andeux says:

              That’s probably true. Right now it looks like the Oakland rotation will be all vaguely average, #3/#4 type pitchers, with the upside being that any one of them could be significantly better than that. While LAAoA is starting with a couple of #2s and three #5s, with their upside being the likelihood that a couple of the guys at the bottom will be replaced by Lackey/Santana before too long.

  7. devo77 says:

    Q: is there any sort of way to tell if comments are new?

  8. andeux says:

    Wakamatsu experimenting with batting Ichiro third.

    “Do I foresee him as the third-place hitter? No. But it gives me another viable option if I go with more of a run-and-gun offense.”

    …So who bats leadoff when Ichiro doesn’t?

    “Endy [Chavez] would be there if Ichiro’s not hitting there,” Wakamatsu said. “Guys like [Yuniesky] Betancourt, [Jose] Lopez, [Franklin] Gutierrez, those type of guys would move around in the lineup a little bit depending on who we’re facing matchup-wise and depending how a guy’s playing.

    “As we go forward, I do like a little bit more versatility and find out where I can hit-and-run guys, where we can bunt back-to-back, where we can steal. I don’t have the answer to that yet.”

    (Career OBPs: Endy Chavez, .311. Betancourt, .305. Jose Lopez, .303. Gutierrez, .308. Ichiro!, .377. Do it Don!)

  9. mikeA says:

    I am amused that the Royals picked up both WFB and Sir Sidney this offseason.

  10. mjdittmer says:

    A’s cameo in the latest Sports guy mailbag.

    Q: My friend and I (a lifelong A’s fans) were talking about Eric Chavez and his inevitable extended stay on the DL this year. We were trying to figure out who would take his spot and realized that neither Nomar or Bobby Crosby could put up decent 3B numbers, but both are an upgrade over what we could expect from Chavez. So then the question came up … in respect to Chavez … is there such a thing as negative V.O.R.P.?
    — Jason, Phoenix

    • monkeyball says:

      <ORP

    • nevermoor says:

      I saw that. They clearly can’t be A’s fans since A’s fans have seen the -VORP wonder called Bobby Crosby. Also, to the extent they’re thinking Chavez’s VORP is negative, they’re wrong.

    • FreeSeatUpgrade says:

      Simmons goes with the boring rote answer per Joe Sheehan, and ends with a mediocre catch-all joke about using “negative VORP’ for lame people you know in real life.

      A much better answer would have been:

      My top five modern negative VORPies:
      1. TO’s publicist
      2. Players 2-12 on the Oklahoma men’s basketball roster.
      3. A Rod’s cousin.
      4. A Rod’s suspicionsly manly girlfriend.
      5. The entire cast of the remake of 90210.

      I mean, come on! I don’t read Simmons for the Joe Sheehan guest appearances…this damn joke writes itself!

  11. xbhaskarx says:

    Projections, Talking Heads, Devo shows up… I knew today’s DLD would be awesome because I was busy all day.
    Also, apparently I capitalize on this blog.

    Has anyone else seen “Synecdoche, New York” and what did you think?

    My NSFW link: wtf??

    In Join Or Die, I paint myself having sex with the Presidents of the United States in chronological order. I am interested in humanizing and demythologizing the Presidents by addressing their public legacies and private lives. The presidency itself is a seemingly immortal and impenetrable institution; by inserting myself in its timeline, I attempt to locate something intimate and mortal. I use this intimacy to subvert authority, but it demands that I make myself vulnerable along with the Presidents. A power lies in rendering these patriarchal figures the possible object of shame, ridicule and desire, but it is a power that is constantly negotiated.

    I approach the spectacle of sex and politics with a certain playfulness. It would be easy to let the images slide into territory that’s strictly pornographic—the lurid and hardcore, the predictably “controversial.” One could also imagine a series preoccupied with wearing its “Fuck the Man” symbolism on its sleeve. But I wish to move beyond these things and make something playful and tender and maybe a little ambiguous, but exuberantly so. This, I feel, is the most humanizing act I can do.

    Does WordPress have blockquotes? Apricot? Ryan?

  12. andeux says:

    Duchscherer: nothing major, could be back in May

    Also says that Outman/Gallagher are still competing for the last spot in the rotation.

    • xbhaskarx says:

      I don’t understand why the A’s wouldn’t want Duke in the rotation. Why would they care if his body doesn’t hold up, he’s gone at the end the season.

      • nevermoor says:

        Because they can’t say that out loud.

      • monkeyball says:

        i interpret their stated desire — to keep duke on the mound as much as possible — as genuine. in other words, the a’s think that duke will blow his arm/hip/whatever out this season regardless of his role, and they’d prefer to use him in as many high-leverage innings as possible rather than having him make 5 starts and be done.

  13. FreeSeatUpgrade says:

    Vampires can’t be real, because if they were, we’d be in the throes of a Malthusian nightmare!

    On vampires and the stochastic process:

    if you model a vampire population as a branching process or birth-death process and assume that each vampire in the population has probability Pj of producing j offspring (with j=0,1,2,… ). The vampire population would either explode or die out, depending on the expected number of offspring per vampire. But if you take into account the fact that vampires live many, many generations (they’re virtually immortal) and may create thousands of offspring, the population explodes (if you assume that each vampire creates at least one vampire, on average, before it dies). With those numbers, vampires would not be living under the radar–they would be everywhere!

    • monkeyball says:

      in former soviet union, radar lives under the vampires

    • monkeyball says:

      I’ve been waiting for an excuse to post this.

      Also: FSU, failed opportunity to make “Bram Stochastic” joke.

    • monkeyball says:

      from the comments there:

      Maybe the branching factor is lower than you think. Vampire reproduction seems a lot like mafia reproduction, and the mafia population never exploded. On “The Sopranos,” Tony had a real hard time finding candidate gangsters that were strong enough to be useful, weak enough that they don’t become rivals, and agreeable enough to be tolerable indefinitely. A wise vampire would be particular about who gets turned into an immortal monster.

      Precisely the problem we had recruiting for FREE KRAUT!

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